Trading Playbook - Cival Manipulation & Pressure Toolkit

What this page is. A way to think about two indicators when you trade discretionary order flow. It describes what must be true on the chart before a reading deserves attention and where each indicator's own reference prices sit. It does not tell you to take any trade, and neither indicator places orders, sets targets or forecasts. Read 03-Reading-the-Indicator first. No profit, win rate or accuracy is claimed for either indicator anywhere in this product.

Each of the two sections below stands alone and ends with its own risk statement. Both describe what already happened; neither describes what will happen.

Cival Manipulation

1. Context first

• Is this a range you care about? The indicator recognises any compressed 12-bar window on the chart you loaded. Ask whether its boundaries line up with something meaningful on a larger timeframe, such as a prior session high or low, a value-area edge, or a level you were already watching. The indicator does not know.
• Which order-flow mode are you in? Choose UseWhenAvailable, RequireCompleteDelta or PriceOnly deliberately and write it down. The mode changes which candles can confirm an expansion and which evidence items are scored, so results from different modes are not comparable.
• Is the flow data complete? The panel's Recorded flow F/C bars line tells you how many closed bars had usable bid/ask data. Flow items on other bars are unavailable, not zero.
• How big is the distance to the invalidation? The frozen ATR sets the scale. Compare it with the move you are prepared to risk before you look at a pattern.
• Is the market about to change character? Scheduled news, a session open or close, or a thin period matter more than a 12-bar window does. The indicator restarts its warm-up after a time gap on time-based charts, so the first bars after a session break carry no cycles.

2. Reference prices and what they mean

3. Playbook A - Watching a reclaim after a one-sided sweep

Idea. A compressed range is swept on one side, price closes back inside, and the study is now waiting to see whether the opposite boundary gives way. This is the stage before expansion, so the study has not confirmed anything yet.

What must be true on the chart.

1. The panel shows RECLAIMED, with a blue range box, a purple sweep band and the label SWEEP / RECLAIM (or Sweep rejected / range reclaimed in the default detail mode).
2. The sweep stayed within 1.75 ATR and the reclaim was a close back inside, not just a wick.
3. The Evidence N/100 · M observable line makes sense for your mode (check whether flow items are available or unavailable).
4. The invalidation line is visible and its distance fits your risk. Note that 1R and 2R do not exist yet; they appear only at expansion.

Where the indicator's prices sit. The swept boundary is just behind price; the invalidation is beyond the sweep extreme on the far side; the opposite boundary is the level a later candle must clear by at least 0.10 ATR with a large body to qualify as expansion.

How a trader might define a plan. Some traders only watch at this stage and wait for the study's expansion. If you consider acting earlier, you are acting before the indicator's own confirmation, so the plan, the stop and the size are entirely yours; the invalidation line is one place a trader might judge the idea to be wrong, and your stop would sit beyond it with room for slippage. Size from that distance. In the demo run, 34 cycles were reclaimed and 5 of them reached expansion; most ended before it.

When to stand aside. The data feed has recently reconnected or flow coverage is poor and you are using RequireCompleteDelta; the reclaim candle is already a very large candle; the distance to the invalidation is wider than your limit; a scheduled release is near.

What cancels it. A bar whose wick touches the invalidation; 8 bars passing after the reclaim with no qualifying expansion; the cycle ending as invalidated or expired for any listed reason. If the panel says INVALIDATED or EXPIRED, the hypothesis is over.

4. Playbook B - A confirmed expansion and the size of R

Idea. A later closed candle clears the opposite boundary with a large directional body. The study marks EXPANSION, sets the reference at that candle's close, and draws 1R and 2R.

What must be true on the chart.

1. EXPANSION on a closed candle, with the label 03 LONG EXPANSION or 03 SHORT EXPANSION (or Bullish expansion / Bearish expansion) and the evidence score.
2. The invalidation, 1R and 2R lines are drawn for the cycle you are looking at (hover a candle in the cycle to select it).
3. You have worked out R in ATR terms. By the time the study confirms, the candle that confirmed it is large and price is already well beyond the range, while the invalidation sits beyond the sweep extreme on the other side. In the demo cycle, the reference was 81,480 and the invalidation 81,668: R = 188 points, about 5.2 times the frozen ATR of 36.36. A plan has to be sized for that distance, not for a typical candle.

How a trader might define a plan. Entry after the expansion candle has closed, or on a pullback toward the broken boundary; the study logs a retest in its report but draws no marker for it, so you would identify it yourself. A stop beyond the invalidation, sized from the real distance from your entry. Management: 1R and 2R are distances, not promises, and a trader might use them as places to reassess, reduce or ignore. The study ends a cycle on a close back through the range midpoint or after 32 bars, which are rules of the study and not necessarily yours. In the demo cycle the 1R and 2R references were observed on the first and second candles after the expansion; in the same run, 3 of the 5 expansions were later invalidated by a close back through the midpoint, one of them with 100/100 evidence.

When to stand aside. R exceeds your risk limit even at the smallest size you accept; the expansion has run straight into a higher-timeframe level that matters to you; the data feed is unreliable; you would be entering after several candles of pullback, where the distance to the invalidation has changed.

What cancels it. The invalidation is touched (wicks count); a candle closes back through the range midpoint; 32 bars pass; a coverage break or malformed candle restarts the study.

5. Playbook C - Review every cycle, especially the ones that did not complete

Idea. The most useful lesson in this indicator's own data is how many recognised ranges end before expansion. In the demo run: 56 ranges, 50 swept, 34 reclaimed, 5 expanded, 2 ran to 2R. Treat the 51 cycles that ended before expansion as information, not misses.

Routine.

1. Scroll back and read every cycle's final panel text. The ending reason (Sweep invalidation touched, Reclaim did not produce qualified displacement in time, Break exceeds maximum sweep depth, and so on) tells you which rule did the work.
2. Use Export current diagnostic report and keep the JSON with your notes; it contains every retained cycle, its evidence items and the retained events, including retests and 1R observations that are not drawn.
3. Record your order-flow mode and settings for the session. Change one setting at a time and note the date.
4. Remember that a range box starts earlier than the bar where it became known. Judge a cycle by its known bar (Range known · bar N), not by where the box begins, or you will fool yourself in hindsight.
5. Judge outcomes in your own terms: your entries, your costs, your risk. The indicator does not model them.

6. Mistakes to avoid

• Treating the word "manipulation" as proof of intent, hidden stops or wrongdoing. It names a price pattern.
• Acting on the sweep alone. A sweep without a closed-price reclaim is incomplete.
• Using the 1R and 2R lines as targets.
• Reading 100/100 as "safe". Evidence is a checklist of the study's conditions, and a 100/100 cycle was invalidated in the demo run.
• Ignoring the size of R and sizing for a normal candle.
• Loosening thresholds until the chart is full of cycles, then judging the indicator by the noise.
• Changing the order-flow mode after seeing the outcome.
• Ignoring expired and invalidated cycles because they are less exciting.
• Trusting readings across a reconnect, history reload or data correction without checking that the study has rebuilt.

7. Risk

Trading futures and cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss, including, on some leveraged products, losses beyond your initial deposit. Cival Manipulation describes what has already happened in closed candles and recorded flow; it does not describe what will happen. Test on replay or a simulated account first, with the settings you intend to use. Size positions so that a stop-out is affordable, from the stop distance rather than from the evidence score. Past observations, including the demonstration run quoted here, do not predict future results. Slippage, fees, funding and spread are not modelled. You are responsible for every order you place, and the indicator is not certified for automated execution.

Cival Pressure Toolkit

1. Context first

• Set the floor for your instrument. Minimum aggressive row volume is 10 in feed units. That is a very different size on a coin-denominated perpetual than on an index future. Before judging any output, make the floor mean something for what you trade.
• Check which layers have data. Bubbles and absorption candidates need footprint. Big prints need individual trade history. Depth needs a live depth feed. The panel's readiness and tape lines say which are working.
• Where are you? A bubble in the middle of nowhere is a description of one candle. A bubble at a level you already had a reason to care about is a different conversation; the toolkit cannot tell you which level matters.
• What time is it? Thin hours and scheduled releases change how much one burst of aggression means.

2. The prices this toolkit gives you

There is no invalidation price, stop or target in this toolkit. It has no lifecycle. Any stop you use comes from your own structure, so decide it before you act.

3. Playbook A - A pressure bubble at a level you already care about

Idea. One candle shows a row (or several) where one side executed at least 3 times the other, at a size that clears your floor. The "Strong" label means the biggest qualifying row was large relative to the previous 20 bars' rows.

What must be true on the chart.

1. The bubble belongs to a closed candle, and the readiness line begins Active.
2. The number in the centre and the B: / S: / Δ: text make sense for your instrument (check the units).
3. The bubble sits at or near a level you identified independently. If it does not, you are reading a candle, not a level.
4. You have looked at how that candle closed relative to the bubble's price, and what the next candles did. The bubble describes the aggression; it does not say whether it held.

Where the prices sit. The bubble's price is the strongest qualifying row. Everything else (a stop, an entry, a target) is yours to define.

How a trader might use it. Some traders note the bubble price as a level to watch for a return, some read it as context for how aggressive one side was before a rejection or continuation, and some ignore it unless another tool agrees. If you plan a trade around it, the invalidation has to come from your structure (for example beyond the candle's extreme if that is where your idea is wrong), and size must come from that distance.

When to stand aside. The footprint is partial (Partial bid/ask footprint in the panel); the bubble is mid-range with no reference you trust; the floor is so low that every candle has one; you are reading a bubble from a candle that is not yet closed.

What cancels it. Whatever you wrote down as the invalidation before you acted. The indicator supplies no cancel condition; write yours first.

4. Playbook B - A wick absorption candidate as a watch level

Idea. A wick row with unusually large volume, dominated by one side, leaves a one-tick line that runs until price first touches it. The indicator asks a question (Absorption?); it does not answer it.

What must be true on the chart.

1. An Absorption? marker on a closed candle, and an untouched line from the following bar.
2. A lower-wick candidate (green) means aggressive selling dominated that row; an upper-wick candidate (tomato) means aggressive buying dominated it.
3. You know the line ends at the first touch, even by the forming candle, so it can vanish before the next close.

How a trader might use it. As a watch level for the next visit, not as an entry in itself. The first touch is the thing to observe: how price behaves there, on closed candles, is your information. A stop would come from your own structure, for example beyond the wick extreme if that is where your idea fails.

What the demo data says about touches. In the demo run, the toolkit created 285 lines; 277 were touched later, and 158 of those by the very next candle. Being touched is the ordinary fate of a line. It says nothing about whether the level mattered.

When to stand aside. The line was touched before you could assess it; the candidate is in the middle of a large range; nothing independent supports the level.

What cancels it. A closed candle through the row against your idea, or whatever you defined in advance. The candidate itself is never "confirmed" by the toolkit.

5. Playbook C - Big prints, depth and round numbers as execution context

Idea. These three layers are better suited to judging how to act than whether to.

• Big prints mark unusually large single executions relative to the previous 100 bars of prints. They are observed aggressive prints, not identities. On a fresh load they can appear only on roughly the newest 20 closed bars.
• Live depth shows the nearest 20 levels of the current book. It is live-only, can change at any moment, and is hidden when stale. It is not evidence that resting orders will remain.
• Round numbers are arithmetic. Price often reacts to them only because people look at them; the toolkit makes no claim.

What a trader might do. Use them to judge slippage, to avoid placing an order into an obvious round-number cluster, or to see whether a print arrived with a pressure bubble on the same candle. Treat none as a setup.

When to stand aside. The tape line shows low coverage or No individual print history; depth reads Depth stale/awaiting fresh feed; you are replaying history (depth does not exist for history).

What cancels it. These layers do not generate ideas to cancel. If you are treating one as a trade trigger, the idea has no basis in the indicator.

6. Using it with Cival Manipulation

If you run both, check whether Pressure Toolkit bubbles or absorption candidates coincide with a Manipulation sweep or reclaim candle. They calculate independently from their own settings and neither reads the other's output, but both read the same footprint, so agreement is context for your discretion, not independent evidence.

7. Journaling and mistakes

Journal. Set CSV export folder to a folder per chart or instrument so files do not overwrite each other. Record the floor, the ratio and the threshold mode alongside each session. Screenshot the decision candle with the panel visible so you can see later whether the tape and footprint were complete. Review lines by what price did on closed candles after the first touch, in your own terms.

Mistakes to avoid.

• Reading the bubble's number as the candle's volume or as a single order. It is the aggressive side's volume summed over the qualifying rows.
• Treating Absorption? as confirmed absorption or as support or resistance.
• Ignoring units: a row floor of 10 means different things on different instruments.
• Trading a line you saw only because the forming candle has not touched it yet.
• Expecting print bubbles on old bars after a fresh load, or reading depth bars as history.
• Reading round numbers as barriers.
• Lowering the floor and ratio until every candle has a bubble, then judging the indicator by the noise.
• Using the toolkit's output as a stop or target. It provides none.

8. Risk

Trading futures and cryptocurrency involves substantial risk of loss, including, on some leveraged products, losses beyond your initial deposit. Cival Pressure Toolkit describes executed order flow and live context; it does not describe what will happen. Test on replay or a simulated account first, with your own volume floor and settings. Size positions so that a stop-out is affordable, from your own stop distance. Past observations, including the demonstration run quoted here, do not predict future results. Slippage, fees, funding and spread are not modelled, and live depth can change or disappear at any moment. You are responsible for every order you place, and the toolkit is not certified for automated execution.